Pokémon GO · Shiny odds
Shiny odds, and how many checks it really takes.
The rates below are the ones with a real basis: a large published sample or a statement from the game's makers. Where nobody has published a reliable figure, it says so.
The known rates.
| Encounter | Odds | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Wild Pokémon | About 1 in 512 | The standard rate for wild spawns. Since March 3, 2026 it applies to nearly every wild Pokémon. |
| Wild species with an event Shiny boost | About 1 in 128 | Many events raise a featured wild species to this rate while they run. Event posts say the chance is increased but never by how much. |
| Rare species that had a permanent boost | About 1 in 512 now (1 in 64 before March 2026) | Rare wild species such as Lapras, Skarmory and Feebas were about 1 in 64 all the time. Since March 3, 2026 they show up at the standard wild rate, with a few exceptions such as Indeedee, Charcadet and Spinda. |
| Community Day | About 1 in 25 | The featured Pokémon during Community Day hours. |
| Five-star raids | About 1 in 20 | The Legendary boss you catch after winning, once its Shiny has been released. |
| Raid Day | About 1 in 10 | The featured boss during a three-hour Raid Day. |
| Research Day | About 1 in 10 for most | Encounters from a Research Day's event tasks. Most studied Research Days gave about 1 in 10; at least one gave about 1 in 20. |
| Shadow raids | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Mega raids | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. The one study of Mega raids had too small a sample to settle on a rate. |
| One- to three-star raids | Unknown, better than wild | Since March 3, 2026, raids and Eggs officially give better Shiny odds than the wild, but no number was given and nobody has published a reliable one. |
| Eggs | Unknown, better than wild | Since March 3, 2026, raids and Eggs officially give better Shiny odds than the wild, but no number was given and nobody has published a reliable one. |
| Hatch Day | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Spotlight Hour | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Research Breakthrough | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Max Battles | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Team GO Rocket Grunts | Unknown | Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
| Team GO Rocket leaders and Giovanni | Unknown, better than Grunts | Officially better than Grunts since March 3, 2026. Nobody has published a reliable figure. |
How many checks?
Pick an encounter type or type your own rate. The answer is the number of Pokémon you need to check for that chance of seeing at least one Shiny.
Checks for chance p at 1 in N: n = ceil(ln(1 − p) / ln(1 − 1/N)).
What "1 in 512" means.
Every Pokémon you check gets its own roll. A 1 in 512 rate means each check has that chance, no matter how many came before it. The game does not keep count, and a long dry streak does not make the next check more likely.
So 512 checks is not a guarantee. After 512 checks the chance you have seen at least one Shiny is about 63%. Half of players get one within 355 checks, and 90% within 1,178. Some players will go well past 1,024 without one; that is bad luck, not a broken counter.
A "check" is one Pokémon you get to see: a wild Pokémon you tap on, a raid boss you catch, an Egg you hatch, or a research encounter. Each of those is one roll, and only species whose Shiny has been released can roll Shiny at all.
Common questions.
What are the Shiny odds in Pokémon GO?
Wild Pokémon: about 1 in 512. Wild species with an event Shiny boost: about 1 in 128. Community Day: about 1 in 25. Five-star raids: about 1 in 20. Raid Day: about 1 in 10. Research Day: about 1 in 10. Since March 3, 2026, raids and Eggs are officially better than the wild, without a published number. Other encounter types have no reliable published figure.
Am I guaranteed a Shiny after 512 checks?
No. Every check is independent, so after 512 checks at 1 in 512 the chance you have seen at least one Shiny is about 63%. Half of players will have one by 355 checks; 90% by 1,178.